Thursday, March 09, 2006

Summer Box Office 2006

This Summer Box Office could be HUGE. HUGE!!! The largest grossing in years. Mark my words. They'll talk about it for years. And then Summer 2007 will suck balls.

So, like I said, this Summer? Huge! Unless the big guns of Summer suck, which they tend to do. But let's say they don't.............

1. Superman - If it's good, this thing will kill. $480+ million
2. Pirates 2: Looks terrific - $375 million

3. Cars: Pixar + Summer Release + Nascar = $350 million

4. The DaVinci Code: Hanks, Howard, Huge book, Pissy Catholics - $275 million
5. MI:3 - JJ Abrahms knows what he's doing $240 million

6. X3: Will open big like the 1st 2, then drop (like the 1st 2) $230 million.

7. Poseiden - Day After Tomorrow-ish, hopefully better $200 million.
8. Over The Hedge - Animated, pre-Memorial Day, should do like Madagascar and hit $180-190 million.
9. Click - This could be funny, and if the Longest Yard did what it did, this will do $175 million
10. The Break-Up - Click & this will be the Summer date movies (ok, so will Pirates, but these come out first). This will do $150 million, maybe a lot more if it's actually funny/good.
11. Monster House - could be much higher. Depends, this will come after mid-Summer, after Over The Hedge & Cars, it needs to be AMAZING. Let's say $120 million, could be less or A LOT more.
12. Miami Vice - Could have some hardcore stuff in it, the Miami-type crowd will dig it. $100-120 million.
13. Talledega Nights (Will Ferrell Nascar) - $90-100 million

14. You, Me & Dupree - Not sure how I feel about this one. Doesn't seem like anything new, might do $80-90 million.
15. Fast & Furious 3: More Furiouser - I like Lucas Black, but did he have to make this? I say $80 million with a sigh.
16 School For Scoundrels - Sleeper $80-90 million
17. The Omen: might be good for a scare, or it could blow. $80 Million
18. Super Ex - Luke Wilson/Uma, Funny concept, but might get lost. Let's say $70-80 million.
19. Nacho Libre - I want this to make a Billion, but it'll be more like School Of Rock numbers and do $80 million, tops.
20. Lady In the Water - Eh. It's about a janitor & a sea nymph at an apartment building pool. I heard the "twist" and it ain't all that twisty. Not that there even needs to be one. I like M. Night, but can't see it doing much, unless I'm wrong, and I could be. But I'm not. $70-80 million.

More from X3:


Konrad West said...

I'm with you on most of that, though I'd lower the figures for Superman, and The Omen is going to flop. Trust me.

Lucy said...

Summer movies suck ASS. One of the worst things about being a parent is being tortured half to death with tripe movies that break all the rules of screenwriting AND are dull into the bargain. Fast forward.....

And The Omen? A remake of THE Omen? With whatsisface and whochamallcallit?

I'm with Konrad. It'll flop.

Chris Soth said...

I think you're high on Da Vinci Code too, but what do I know? And Superman maybe too, high...and I sort of think as we get lower on the list, there's a chance A LOT of those will get lost, at least to history, tho' they may be profitable...but I applaud your brave prognostication.


taZ said...

Yes, I agree with Chris. You definitely have prognostiblabla...

But I think that Da-Vinci will have much more than $275 million. Maybe around $350 mill.

And towards the end there are some movies that will probably flop. Like the Omen.

Lady In the Water will make the $100 mill. line though.

Patrick J. Rodio said...

Omen might open big then sink, but it might squeak out some cash.

My figure is high on Superman because this generation hasn't had a Superman movie, and if it's done well and kicks ass, eveyrone will want to see it.

Me said...

Good calls, especially at the top. I disagree with M. Night. The Village was, well, just a disappointing Village to a lot of folks and still did $114M (if I remember correctly). I think Lady will at least break 100.