Not many surprises with the big nominations, a few that I like, I hope Clooney takes a statue for Good night/luck and he deserves one for Syriana. Then again I'd love to see Matt Dillon win for Crash. Giamatti should already have one for Sideways.
Brokeback will still win best pic and director (oh, and adapted screenplay), but the Crash victory at the SAG awards says that it's not 100% of a win for the Brokebackers. Wish history of Violence got a little more love, Jarhead, too. The Constant Gardener as well, but Weisz should get her Oscar. As good as she is, I'd love Michelle Williams to swoop in and steal it, James Van Der Beek would be all like, Whoa! Even better would be an Amy Adams win.
Hoffman will win for Capote, but it'd be nice to see Heath surprise, or Terrence Howard.
Revenge of the Sith got all the nominations it deserved, although the FX were good so it should have gotten a visual effects bone thrown at it. The Konger should win for the FX.
Wallace and Gromit will and should win. I wonder if next year if they'll still only have 3 slots open for Animation, since there's like 10000 animated movies coming out (including Flushed Away, Cars (one of these will be the likely winner next year), Open Season, Ant Bully, Barnyard, Meet The Robertson's (Disney), Ice Age 2, etc, etc).
Reese will win and that's okay by me.