Sunday, June 25, 2006

My Box Office Estimates - An update!

Back in March, I posted about what the summer box office might look like. Let's see how I'm doing thus far.......

I've got Superman at 480 million. (chuckles). Well, maybe that's high, although the movie looks great and like I said then, if it turns out to be great, and something the kids can get into also, then maybe I'm NOT so crazy.

Pirates 2 - I guessed 375 million. I stand by that 100%. People love the Depp as Cap'n Jack, and rightly so, he owns it, makes people laugh, and so on. This is the only movie that could put a beat down on Supes. If I'm wrong it'll be because I didn't estimate enough.

Cars - Cool movie, I liked it a lot. Some amazing animation here. But it ain't gonna hit 350 million, which was my guess, it might be more like 240-250 million. I thought it might a few months back, but now I realize that although kids will flock to it, not too so many GIRLS will flock to it, mostly boys who think race cars are cool (and their Dad's who KNOW race cars are cool). It's actually a great family movie.

DaVinci - I'm sorry, I assumed it was actually going to be a good movie. I was so bored I couldn't even fall asleep. It just barely squeaked by 200 million so my 275 estimate ain't gonna happen. And it doesn't deserve it either.....on a Ron Howard side note, just (finally) caught Cinderella Man - Great movie, Crowe was awesome, loved everything about it. By the way, maybe I'm too tough on DaVinci, it had some good moments, like when the rear view mirror broke!

MI:3 - I said 240, it's hovering around 130 and will stop around there. Why? It deserves at least 250, and it's a shame. Well, it's Cruiseball's fault for shoving his dopey opinions in the world's face, but he still made a KICK ASS movie.

X-3 - I was damn close - I estimated 230, it's now at 225 after making 4.4 million this weekend, so I'll be a little off, but pretty close!

Poseiden - I estimated 200 million - Oops!

Over Da Hedge - I guessed 180-190, which as it turns out will be a little high, it's now a bit over 140 and pretty much done.

Click - I've got it at 175, it just made 40 million as it's opening, it should kick ass through the 4th weekend. Depends how it'll hold up. Too early to tell.

The Break-Up - I pegged it at 150. It just went by 100 mil, but it's losing steam so my guess will be too high.

The Fast and REALY Furious 3 - I thought 80. It won't make 80.

Nacho - I said 80 million, and it appears that I was dead-on. Experts are guessing it'll end around 75-80.

The Omen - I guessed 80, it's at 60 and dropping like Julia Styles career, so that estimate will be high.

Everything else on the list has yet to open, so I'll have to throw down an update in about a month.


A. M. said...

Superman's getting good buzz (not talking about his dangling man-bits, ahem), so we'll see.

Click? Dunno if it'll hold up that well.

Pirates 2 trailer looked sucky on the big screen, but then I'm not the target audience. still, what a godawful suckfest of a trailer.

Julia Stiles (Stiles, St-i-les!) took time off to study. I believe she does have a career, like her a lot.

If you're way off just look at International B.O. Da Vinci did awesome alltogether. Unfortunately.

Thomas Crymes said...

When you do next year's estimates, write your numbers down and then take off like 20% and you'll be in the ball park.

I still enjoyed DaVinci. I've got no choice, but to conclude that I'm surrounded by people who just don't like movies. Plain and simple. :)

Patrick J. Rodio said...

We'll see Crymes, I think I'm on target for Pirates, Click, & X-Men. We'll see about Superman. the 2 I was way off (and I bet eveyrone in hollywood was too) was MI:3 & Poseiden.

Even Cars I'll end up pretty close.

Patrick J. Rodio said...

Also, in my own defense, I guessed at these in March, WAY before they were even close to their releases.

Systemaddict said...

I don't think Click will hold past this weekend.

With Sup Returns, it'll eat up the box office.

Then the following week...the battle begins.

Pirates and for the niche crowd- a quietly awaited and, so far, well review film- A Scanner Darkly. Though Scanner is unlikely to do big'll eat away enough with Pirates and Sups...that all films before will die away...

I expect Pirates to do better than 350. I'm not sure if you're speaking strictly US or not...but Black Pearl did something like 630mil. I'd excpect at least another half billion.

I think you're right about MI3- better film that I think it got credit for...but people are more weary of Cruise than ever...

Patrick J. Rodio said...

I was speaking of domestic, but I think you're right about Pirates, maybe 400+.

We'll see about Click, it'll drop off but should bring in a bunch over the 4th. At least spill over from sold out Superman shows.